Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f74b18d93ec4b3335611e0e4cfe4b6d2977226c6dea8d16ac59dba556df1605
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 4c | 254.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 229.66$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 78c | 216.74$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 17c | 196.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 23c | 167.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 17c | 164.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 12c | 160.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 136.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 30c | 113.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 52c | 110.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 99.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 96.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 80c | 94.85$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 73.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 30c | 69.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 33c | 65.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 21c | 51.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…2ae6backed Yes | 22c | 50.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…b45abacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 37c | 48.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e66…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 46.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 24c | 44.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 76c | 40.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 73c | 40.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 80c | 36.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 36.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 65c | 35.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 73c | 33.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e92…b414backed Yes | 38c | 32.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 38c | 31.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae4…bd41backed No | 62c | 29.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 80c | 28.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 71c | 17.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 66c | 16.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 15.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 80c | 15.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 80c | 14.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 80c | 14.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed No | 80c | 14.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.