Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa236d9af789b838ed27c66241fb85f022c4d264c88bbce1fdbd7170bbf4eee9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 609.84$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 49c | 491.8$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.9 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 14c | 375.08$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.22 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 8c | 337.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.82 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.49 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 246.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 8c | 204.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 11c | 189.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.13 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 159.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.89 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 121.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.93 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 11c | 99.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…b45abacked Yes | 70c | 99.11$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 11c | 90.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…9326backed Yes | 66c | 87.65$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 18c | 87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.77 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 22c | 86.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.81 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 13c | 78.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.37 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 28c | 76.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 52c | 71.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked Yes | 22c | 63.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.42 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 28c | 61.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21e8…148abacked No | 67c | 57.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…98e9backed No | 25c | 53.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 36c | 47.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 56c | 45.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 79c | 40.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fde…b0ffbacked Yes | 70c | 38.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa062…7511backed Yes | 80c | 38.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 38.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 78c | 38.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 54c | 35.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbafc…d03fbacked Yes | 42c | 33.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…91f8backed No | 80c | 31.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3af…33a9backed Yes | 70c | 27.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…ea10backed Yes | 70c | 27.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 79c | 24.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 23.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 65c | 21.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 20.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…534fbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 72c | 15.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.