Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on February 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x661566fa4f506a0b21abed6dad829d8caf4992da17417a19ed51efeb337f3e77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 45c | 647.17$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.79 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 5c | 504.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 67c | 420.06$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.23 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 40c | 333.49$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.52 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 39c | 166.73$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 19c | 164.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 11c | 135.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 126.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 54c | 106.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d9…b26bbacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 20c | 99.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 75c | 96.66$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e61…3f5ebacked Yes | 40c | 75.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 37c | 64.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 58c | 64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 63.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…8769backed Yes | 59c | 51.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dde…5e0dbacked Yes | 48c | 50.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…f9babacked Yes | 52c | 48.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…3578backed Yes | 32c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 29c | 43.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 32c | 43.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…171bbacked Yes | 40c | 36.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 61c | 36.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 55c | 36.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c8…b47ebacked Yes | 51c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…4351backed Yes | 37c | 32.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 32.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1192…634cbacked Yes | 62c | 32.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 32.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…f213backed Yes | 45c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 54c | 26.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefd0…7e95backed Yes | 42c | 25.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 25.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…55eebacked Yes | 48c | 22.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe86d…3328backed Yes | 44c | 22.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61a7…4743backed No | 52c | 21.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -5.8wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -45%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e7…b41bbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 65c | 18.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…10f1backed Yes | 56c | 18.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 77c | 17.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…fa55backed No | 64c | 17.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on February 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on February 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on February 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.