Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Team Shpilit - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6635e8323536439fa93a5fed2c1342ec68a446f8c1fdce9a76f9a413784ac341
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rune Eatersof Rune Eaters, Team Shpilit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,483 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Shpilit | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Team Shpilit | 27c | 268.68$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.56 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked Team Shpilit | 37c | 244.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…d00abacked Team Shpilit | 19c | 189.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 251 | 47.4%119 W · 132 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Rune Eaters | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Rune Eaters | 56c | 151.43$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Rune Eaters | 68c | 130$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Team Shpilit | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Rune Eaters | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…a5b8backed Rune Eaters | 63c | 81.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb704…af15backed Team Shpilit | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd679…9ccfbacked Team Shpilit | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x126a…2e3ebacked Rune Eaters | 70c | 42.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Team Shpilit | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Rune Eaters | 74c | 19.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Team Shpilit - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Team Shpilit (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group ARune Eaters won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.