Fifa International · resolved market
Alphonso Davies: 1+ shots
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6694e239e1b103ec8b5bd5c91d5da814f7cbb7d563c00e3d9d288846ef0bd257
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1bda…edd3backed Yes | 20c | 530.82$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.52 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…bd60backed No | 79c | 433.4$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.93 | 90 | 78.9%71 W · 19 L | +18.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf511…bfe4backed No | 66c | 336.02$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.12 | 145 | 79.3%115 W · 30 L | +17.0wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd220…fc0bbacked Yes | 40c | 276.42$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.38 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae3…6c99backed Yes | 14c | 145.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd03d…107ebacked No | 80c | 100.6$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ba…06b3backed Yes | 34c | 83.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…152abacked No | 80c | 65.65$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7839…33f3backed No | 60c | 27.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0a…36a8backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Alphonso Davies: 1+ shotsthis page
- Alphonso Davies: 1+ assistsNo won
- Alphonso Davies: 1+ goalsNo won
- Alphonso Davies: 2+ shotsNo won
- Cyle Larin: 1+ goalsYes won
- Edin Džeko: 1+ assistsNo won
- Edin Džeko: 1+ goalsNo won
- Edin Džeko: 1+ shotsNo won
- Ermedin Demirović: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ermedin Demirović: 2+ goalsNo won
- Esmir Bajraktarević: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ismaël Koné: 1+ goalsNo won
- Jonathan David: 1+ goalsNo won
- Jonathan David: 2+ goalsNo won
- Jovo Lukić: 1+ goalsYes won
- Mathieu Choinière: 1+ shots on targetNo won
- Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.