Fifa International · resolved market
Jonathan David: 1+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01a9acebabf4fffcc62787087ee9f94f65b45dfa5d4c5ae638356573a52e79e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 64c | 2,139$1,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.25 | 464 | 64.9%301 W · 163 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked No | 65c | 1,202$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.66 | 327 | 65.7%215 W · 112 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Yes | 36c | 1,120$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc843…32b7backed Yes | 36c | 690.57$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 65c | 625.58$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.01 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdee6…782fbacked Yes | 35c | 569.99$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 65c | 399.97$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 311 | 71.4%222 W · 89 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…1f7bbacked Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 66c | 231.35$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.62 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked Yes | 35c | 205.71$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…2488backed Yes | 35c | 171.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…f2bbbacked Yes | 35c | 144.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf703…541abacked Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 180 | 40%72 W · 108 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6e…bd19backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 60c | 141.11$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 379 | 59.1%224 W · 155 L | +20.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…02b0backed Yes | 34c | 138.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 365 | 34.2%125 W · 240 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd85f…0a2cbacked Yes | 35c | 110.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…77abbacked No | 65c | 99.97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 288 | 73.3%211 W · 77 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2c…cd4ebacked Yes | 31c | 94.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed No | 66c | 74.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…3c59backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 47.9%79 W · 86 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4f…0b9ebacked Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd424…bf7bbacked Yes | 34c | 64.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 90 | 33.3%30 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…fc2bbacked Yes | 35c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe2…4da7backed Yes | 35c | 50.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c1…9019backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98c1…3d1ebacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…9294backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 494 | 26.7%132 W · 362 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 67c | 43.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf584…a8dcbacked No | 69c | 41.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed No | 66c | 40.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 126 | 57.1%72 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…046fbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 345 | 26.1%90 W · 255 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b36…d80cbacked Yes | 36c | 36.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 186 | 41.9%78 W · 108 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked Yes | 35c | 33.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…2c8dbacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 434 | 60.4%262 W · 172 L | +33.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 66c | 19.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 67c | 15.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 218 | 58.7%128 W · 90 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jonathan David: 1+ goalsthis page
- Alphonso Davies: 1+ assistsNo won
- Alphonso Davies: 1+ goalsNo won
- Alphonso Davies: 1+ shotsNo won
- Alphonso Davies: 2+ shotsNo won
- Cyle Larin: 1+ goalsYes won
- Edin Džeko: 1+ assistsNo won
- Edin Džeko: 1+ goalsNo won
- Edin Džeko: 1+ shotsNo won
- Ermedin Demirović: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ermedin Demirović: 2+ goalsNo won
- Esmir Bajraktarević: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ismaël Koné: 1+ goalsNo won
- Jonathan David: 2+ goalsNo won
- Jovo Lukić: 1+ goalsYes won
- Mathieu Choinière: 1+ shots on targetNo won
- Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.