WNBA · resolved market
Dream vs Fever
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66f314875c92b5e81c6a5d1d487a587d199f97aa4fdf81db19913623e9b7c749
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dreamof Dream, Fever
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Dream | 26c | 1,066$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.26 | 95 | 37.9%36 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Fever | 75c | 726$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Fever | 76c | 700$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Dream | 25c | 529.33$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.33 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Fever | 70c | 450$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Fever | 75c | 400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed Fever | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa26a…6d6ebacked Dream | 77c | 259.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Dream | 21c | 251.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.65 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6d…aeb9backed Dream | 78c | 159.67$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Dream | 26c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Fever | 79c | 50.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Fever | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.