Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-10-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x671f228bc223ad0b7c026e5b5cd05856e85809c7385b2d37a994b6726efa47c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1470…7cbebacked Yes | 47c | 4,322$2,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,018.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2f…ef1abacked No | 59c | 2,644$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.94 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 53c | 2,621$1,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,226.36 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 54c | 2,139$1,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.59 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 41c | 2,118$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.47 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…54d7backed Yes | 46c | 2,088$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 5c | 827.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 2c | 554.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ba…134ebacked Yes | 26c | 469.57$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 60c | 465.33$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.93 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 47c | 404.26$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 57c | 399.95$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.98 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 44c | 342.63$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0148…daf8backed Yes | 39c | 229$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.35 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 59c | 131.71$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 55c | 92.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 57c | 88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43c2…4beabacked Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…f4c1backed No | 55c | 66.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 42c | 47.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 59c | 43.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 64c | 38.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 36c | 38.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed No | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-10-05?this page
- Will Hamburger SV vs. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?No won
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-10-05?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.