Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-10-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62cabde5b8d329f92e38d43e14897ac24816f99564382758df1b2e5216cd8af6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 70c | 6,040$4,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,227.4 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…54d7backed No | 28c | 1,775$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes | 30c | 1,667$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.67 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73af…fa89backed Yes | 30c | 1,667$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.67 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yes | 72c | 1,442$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.36 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 34c | 1,435$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.2 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 33c | 828.02$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.28 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf78e…0956backed Yes | 77c | 720$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 35c | 341.94$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.5 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 66c | 261.35$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.04 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba4…f493backed Yes | 31c | 256$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e3…b3a4backed No | 19c | 241.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed No | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 62c | 176.31$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.31 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 24c | 167.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb228…6193backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 29c | 124.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.05 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Yes | 30c | 110$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6425…b235backed No | 71c | 99.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b60…98a4backed Yes | 76c | 82.34$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…a5b1backed No | 71c | 81.77$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…1dc6backed Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked No | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 78c | 76.74$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 77c | 76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Yes | 29c | 74.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb33…ef60backed No | 71c | 74.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 32c | 66.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.42 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c9…ba2abacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e59…c102backed Yes | 75c | 60.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba5d…d1a1backed No | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b16…a327backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf265…348dbacked No | 67c | 56.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe823…42d2backed Yes | 74c | 42.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b3…2beabacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…403bbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 64c | 26.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87dc…a465backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…40d1backed Yes | 78c | 24.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a4…5eb3backed Yes | 80c | 23.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 61cpaid | +44%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 67c | 21.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…b407backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-10-05?this page
- Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-10-05?No won
- Will Hamburger SV vs. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.