Asian League · resolved market
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67406065cde8a3252d22246cc7546debf1dc8c169da968bd67f24d3dbd9c39bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 40c | 1,348$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.04 | 825 | 42.4%350 W · 475 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 38c | 1,146$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.31 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 985.39$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.12 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 58c | 946$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.22 | 1,617 | 36.3%587 W · 1,030 L | -34.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…4eb2backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 25c | 105.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 169 | 29%49 W · 120 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Under | 58c | 77.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…df19backed Under | 58c | 77.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…6533backed Under | 58c | 77.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 65c | 64.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed Over | 28c | 52.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 24c | 48.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 1,707 | 50.6%863 W · 844 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 344 | 47.4%163 W · 181 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 70c | 27.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Under | 76c | 25.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 53 | 69.8%37 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 69c | 22.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 69c | 22.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Under | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 3.5this page
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5Over won
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 4.5Under won
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Avispa Fukuoka (-1.5)Avispa Fukuoka won
- Spread: Avispa Fukuoka (-2.5)Avispa Fukuoka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.