Asian League · resolved market
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3806953534bd03a37e72da93fb2d70dfd8e7ee6a837a44e7a6da84554cf2e34f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 26c | 2,730$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.75 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 74c | 2,548$1,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.7 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…01cdbacked Under | 5c | 722.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 251.23$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.89 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d6…4bfbbacked Over | 75c | 204.93$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Over | 47c | 119.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 47c | 106$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…0935backed Over | 53c | 106$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +11.6wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 47c | 101.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 747 | 39.4%294 W · 453 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f03…8a0dbacked Under | 53c | 94.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 77c | 75.83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 38c | 49.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 54c | 41.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b4…7c3fbacked Over | 62c | 32.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…190dbacked Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 357 | 51%182 W · 175 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Over | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5this page
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 3.5Under won
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 4.5Under won
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Avispa Fukuoka (-1.5)Avispa Fukuoka won
- Spread: Avispa Fukuoka (-2.5)Avispa Fukuoka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.