Asian League · resolved market
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa831636495db1e44d4d67595eba1990401cda8229f9d3524412864f29a4f9b81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 53c | 963.03$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 43c | 593.23$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.14 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 54c | 202.8$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.51 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cea…371bbacked Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Yes | 54c | 141.14$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.86 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 46c | 108.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…3ef8backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 45c | 71.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked No | 47c | 67.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 48c | 64.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 348 | 47.4%165 W · 183 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ba…2062backed Yes | 54c | 47.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Yes | 31c | 43.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 52c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 46c | 28.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 326 | 54%176 W · 150 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 46c | 27.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 357 | 51%182 W · 175 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 54c | 22.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 747 | 39.4%294 W · 453 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…f08abacked No | 56c | 22.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 52c | 21.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5Over won
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 3.5Under won
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 4.5Under won
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Avispa Fukuoka (-1.5)Avispa Fukuoka won
- Spread: Avispa Fukuoka (-2.5)Avispa Fukuoka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.