Earnings · resolved market
Will Nike say "Nike Factory" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67641df49e358fc38022ddfd6771490c2abf1bb2bf489773bd9d2e64549c859d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 21c | 650$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 79c | 500$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4533…d575backed Yes | 79c | 290.9$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.99 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 37c | 257$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.83 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd96…e623backed Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 53c | 109.81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.49 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…3164backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc12…eb59backed No | 23c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +8.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…c5d9backed Yes | 64c | 63.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…adcabacked Yes | 77c | 56.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86f2…8914backed Yes | 71c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…8039backed No | 38c | 39.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +121%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nike say "Nike Factory" during earnings call?this page
- Will Nike say "Amazon" during earnings call?No won
- Will Nike say "Black Friday" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Nike say "China" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Nike say "Consumer Demand" during earnings call?No won
- Will Nike say "Digital Sales" during earnings call?No won
- Will Nike say "Direct to Consumer / DTC" during earnings call?No won
- Will Nike say "Dividend" during earnings call?No won
- Will Nike say "Express Lane" during earnings call?No won
- Will Nike say "Retailer" during earnings call?No won
- Will Nike say "Sabrina" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Nike say "Skims / NikeSKIMS" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Nike say "Stranger Thing" during earnings call?No won
- Will Nike say "Supply Chain" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Nike say "Sustainable" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Nike say "Tariff" during earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.