Earnings · resolved market
Will Nike say "Amazon" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6b00bd97d6377c9c8e1d42d8ac3d092100a429d11b63697dcc69fe6bff4d106
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 45c | 1,531$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.99 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 55c | 1,221$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.32 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4533…d575backed No | 44c | 665.57$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.72 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 56c | 410$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.94 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed Yes | 54c | 345.18$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.77 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 50c | 213.14$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.96 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd96…e623backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…adcabacked Yes | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…87d5backed Yes | 58c | 140$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x519a…1551backed Yes | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48c6…d483backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc12…eb59backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +8.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…6d9cbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nike say "Amazon" during earnings call?this page
- Will Nike say "Black Friday" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Nike say "China" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Nike say "Consumer Demand" during earnings call?No won
- Will Nike say "Digital Sales" during earnings call?No won
- Will Nike say "Direct to Consumer / DTC" during earnings call?No won
- Will Nike say "Dividend" during earnings call?No won
- Will Nike say "Express Lane" during earnings call?No won
- Will Nike say "Nike Factory" during earnings call?No won
- Will Nike say "Retailer" during earnings call?No won
- Will Nike say "Sabrina" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Nike say "Skims / NikeSKIMS" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Nike say "Stranger Thing" during earnings call?No won
- Will Nike say "Supply Chain" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Nike say "Sustainable" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Nike say "Tariff" during earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.