Mls · resolved market
Philadelphia Union vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6782cd439aac1faa2055d2e7c33aa1a365e5929a4403d232e83f23dd0567760b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,107 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 45c | 8,890$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000.47 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 55c | 5,058$2,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,275.96 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 4,694$1,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,761.19 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 55c | 662.16$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.97 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 606.38$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.16 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 58c | 468.43$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.62 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 18c | 279$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.78 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…a708backed Over | 57c | 250$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 50c | 219.56$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.78 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 36c | 170.76$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.84 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07a0…7a80backed Over | 73c | 136.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 38c | 131.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 44c | 120.35$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 61c | 86.39$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e22…d36cbacked Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 60c | 59.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe579…ba5ebacked Over | 39c | 47.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Over | 52c | 40.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 58c | 33.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…ceb2backed Under | 44c | 32.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 35c | 30.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -6.6wins | -0.15per pick | 64cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0718…fccebacked Over | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 44c | 23.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 54c | 18.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 80c | 17.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadf3…ac67backed Over | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Union vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 1.5this page
- Philadelphia Union vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Philadelphia Union vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 2.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.