Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Buse vs Baez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67bfd5d7cf1b8d98d87144c08e093f8eb2cc7d9db0958a9cb2e3b7a1450e6705
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baezof Buse, Baez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Buse | 4c | 986$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Baez | 61c | 215$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.85 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Baez | 66c | 170$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 178 | 67.4%120 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Buse | 34c | 142.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Buse | 39c | 128$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Buse | 37c | 118.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Baez | 55c | 89.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Buse | 28c | 85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 290 | 63.8%185 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2608…34c1backed Buse | 45c | 68.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60f…742dbacked Baez | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x944b…34e8backed Buse | 36c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa57…ffdbbacked Baez | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fed…23e5backed Buse | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7613…8a5ebacked Buse | 37c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d42…6c98backed Baez | 62c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…d358backed Baez | 61c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 341 | 59.5%203 W · 138 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e2…48a0backed Baez | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f40…cefdbacked Baez | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47aa…ab1cbacked Baez | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…58c1backed Baez | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebf…beaabacked Baez | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf22…531bbacked Baez | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Buse vs Baezthis page
- Argentina Open: Ignacio Buse vs Sebastian BaezBaez won
- Set Handicap: Baez (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5)Baez won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.