Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67fe6226a20ef7d1357669512b163363e7fe2d8c0da383df284ce5bd994ed31e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 5c | 3,633$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.08 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…a6e9backed Yes | 42c | 2,406$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,396.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…638fbacked No | 58c | 1,220$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…3f0abacked No | 58c | 1,186$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 10c | 833.6$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x81f4…c210backed Yes | 35c | 255$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.31 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 49c | 229.98$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.17 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 211.84$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 15c | 199.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeadd…c095backed Yes | 44c | 175.82$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 70c | 175.16$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 57c | 160.81$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.86 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 61c | 158.42$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…6d40backed Yes | 47c | 130$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.73 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +173.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes | 35c | 102.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…906bbacked Yes | 80c | 99.97$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 44c | 83.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 38c | 78.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.54 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 60c | 77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 74.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeed2…ad97backed No | 64c | 67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…1705backed No | 59c | 56.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 63c | 54.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…a7b3backed Yes | 40c | 53.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 56c | 50.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 37c | 50.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…5d3dbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…36b3backed Yes | 53c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x038a…1a9fbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 36c | 48.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe876…734ebacked No | 62c | 48.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 58c | 47.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked Yes | 39c | 42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc053…4cccbacked Yes | 36c | 40.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 38c | 38.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe311…a16fbacked No | 61c | 36.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8908…21f2backed Yes | 41c | 36.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 38c | 31.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 69c | 31.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…5a55backed Yes | 47c | 31.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 61c | 30.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 64c | 28.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 43c | 27.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 53c | 26.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 55c | 25.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 25.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 54c | 24.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 78c | 20.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…3c05backed No | 70c | 17.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 48°F or higher on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.