Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36f681ada7d2e025f344e82fb174a4f0f7128fd865a4095fb801d3aa4455960d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5de8…f004backed Yes | 10c | 1,344$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.42 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd4…ebc4backed Yes | 1c | 1,030$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…4043backed Yes | 29c | 342.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 17c | 202.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 202.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 28c | 199.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 71c | 166.3$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 38c | 148.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeadd…c095backed Yes | 18c | 136.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 72c | 135.75$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 77c | 132.65$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 61c | 112.08$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 13c | 102.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 99.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 90.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 30c | 90.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 11c | 89.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb5…a07bbacked Yes | 52c | 86.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 14c | 85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 71c | 85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f4…c210backed Yes | 25c | 75.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 28c | 71.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 53c | 70.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc053…4cccbacked Yes | 30c | 62.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 71c | 62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb1…c3e6backed No | 71c | 61.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 58.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 33c | 51.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…12debacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…36b3backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6032…4245backed Yes | 31c | 45.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 76c | 41.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 65c | 36.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 31.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 77c | 23.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc540…f00dbacked No | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab0f…ee84backed No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 48°F or higher on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.