Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: North Dakota State Bison (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6804a6e46b4da8bfcd8c7a40dc110595237968b8901be142c7c36142f5b317e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- North Dakota State Bisonof North Dakota State Bison, Denver Pioneers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed North Dakota State Bison | 52c | 51,794$26,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,906.7 | 359 | 45.1%162 W · 197 L | -24.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Denver Pioneers | 48c | 40,000$19,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,200 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +34.7wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x163e…dc5bbacked Denver Pioneers | 50c | 24,378$12,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,171.29 | 127 | 54.3%69 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…020bbacked North Dakota State Bison | 50c | 16,870$8,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,435 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Denver Pioneers | 49c | 5,084$2,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,486.03 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Denver Pioneers | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 422 | 46.2%195 W · 227 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked North Dakota State Bison | 50c | 3,791$1,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,888.79 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Denver Pioneers | 51c | 1,020$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 557 | 49.2%274 W · 283 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked Denver Pioneers | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 255 | 56.1%143 W · 112 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Denver Pioneers | 49c | 285.71$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed North Dakota State Bison | 50c | 235$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Denver Pioneers | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed North Dakota State Bison | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 352 | 43.2%152 W · 200 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Denver Pioneers | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…57ffbacked North Dakota State Bison | 52c | 84.38$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked North Dakota State Bison | 52c | 77.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Denver Pioneers | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Denver Pioneers | 49c | 58.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed North Dakota State Bison | 50c | 56.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe0…323bbacked Denver Pioneers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed North Dakota State Bison | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 350 | 50.3%176 W · 174 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d6…a56abacked Denver Pioneers | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed North Dakota State Bison | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 179 | 43.6%78 W · 101 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: North Dakota State Bison (-4.5)this page
- North Dakota State Bison vs. Denver PioneersNorth Dakota State Bison won
- North Dakota State Bison vs. Denver Pioneers: O/U 158.5Over won
- North Dakota State Bison vs. Denver Pioneers: O/U 159.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.