Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Karlsruher SC win on 2025-11-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x686a4a8c7eb54e71eb475b65888d66e127e35b6ab0c26aa3c222a2910249f490
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 1,767$1,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.55 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Yes | 29c | 999$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.71 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…c600backed Yes | 33c | 934.58$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed No | 69c | 472.88$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Yes | 31c | 444$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.64 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…a7b9backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a47…cfbbbacked No | 68c | 225$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 19c | 218.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 14c | 208.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497f…da80backed Yes | 34c | 120.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 71c | 99.47$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked No | 65c | 73.88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 29c | 68.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 70c | 43.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +5.4wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2025-11-23?this page
- Will Karlsruher SC vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw?No won
- Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2025-11-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.