Olympics · resolved market
Olympic Basketball: USA (-29.5) vs. South Sudan Spread
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x688e78d3e2183e8370f334b3b5680ef438569295cd219292f7771c0bfb3c612c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- South Sudanof USA, South Sudan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee8d…94b2backed USA | 1c | 2,996$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed South Sudan | 52c | 2,728$1,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309.16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0003…857abacked USA | 47c | 2,075$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 50cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked USA | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed USA | 35c | 666.92$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…6b28backed USA | 55c | 450$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed USA | 4c | 444$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed South Sudan | 69c | 315.22$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…c428backed South Sudan | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked USA | 56c | 227.27$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.27 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8259…bd18backed South Sudan | 55c | 200$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…ad03backed USA | 50c | 193.21$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…2a96backed USA | 55c | 183.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79e0…b762backed USA | 62c | 161.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed South Sudan | 39c | 62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed USA | 58c | 56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0232…9391backed USA | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed South Sudan | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed USA | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x240e…e8aabacked South Sudan | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe82c…ce7abacked USA | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…d377backed South Sudan | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f6…2a3abacked USA | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3c…1613backed USA | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.