Tennis · resolved market
Transylvania Open: Maja Chwalinska vs Ana Bogdan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6946f69cc3f74bc170eacd176b8314cd3e7492c3c0d794e7c2a5b22bf4384e2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chwalinskaof Chwalinska, Bogdan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Bogdan | 1c | 4,784$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Chwalinska | 64c | 2,703$1,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.31 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Bogdan | 19c | 1,694$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.16 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Bogdan | 20c | 1,249$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.47 | 305 | 30.8%94 W · 211 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…9c97backed Bogdan | 18c | 844.21$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Bogdan | 37c | 711.08$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.2 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Bogdan | 35c | 584.02$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Bogdan | 19c | 547.42$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.75 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…532ebacked Chwalinska | 80c | 535$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…f842backed Bogdan | 10c | 516.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Bogdan | 16c | 437.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Bogdan | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Chwalinska | 70c | 427.18$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.18 | 537 | 52.3%281 W · 256 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Bogdan | 19c | 399.09$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.33 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…dbc5backed Bogdan | 32c | 397.39$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.67 | 123 | 35%43 W · 80 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab0…b46abacked Bogdan | 18c | 366.67$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 237 | 35%83 W · 154 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…4347backed Chwalinska | 66c | 303.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.63 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cde…6040backed Bogdan | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4da…b913backed Bogdan | 4c | 259.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…f142backed Bogdan | 17c | 233.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Bogdan | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Bogdan | 22c | 191.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bogdan | 10c | 137.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Bogdan | 14c | 105.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 218 | 43.1%94 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Chwalinska | 77c | 100.21$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Bogdan | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 79 | 41.8%33 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Bogdan | 19c | 98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 254 | 28%71 W · 183 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Bogdan | 18c | 86.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Bogdan | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Chwalinska | 80c | 69.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Bogdan | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Chwalinska | 68c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c19…859cbacked Chwalinska | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Chwalinska | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 311 | 53.1%165 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…993dbacked Chwalinska | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Bogdan | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Transylvania Open: Maja Chwalinska vs Ana Bogdanthis page
- Chwalinska vs. Bogdan: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Chwalinska vs. Bogdan: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.