Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69585079741839c79531715dda75917d4de5ca30d688894863a38d11cf5bb2fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 1c | 849.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b93…cdecbacked Yes | 8c | 686.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 3c | 572.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 80c | 431.17$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 252.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 201.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 10c | 200.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fd…7e7ebacked Yes | 8c | 199.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 152.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes | 11c | 107.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 19c | 77.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 22c | 77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…bf47backed No | 71c | 68.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 62.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 60.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c3…5928backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x957f…aee0backed Yes | 34c | 48.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9897…eb2abacked No | 74c | 39.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 70c | 38.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a7…000cbacked Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 44c | 35.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x208a…faa8backed No | 73c | 32.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ee…d06abacked No | 73c | 27.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…f4d7backed No | 72c | 22.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x512c…17d5backed No | 71c | 21.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…7bc6backed No | 71c | 19.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.