Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a212b841d0c8487c61f19a42921e8cf17496ecd01ce1816c81a26c9a61223b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 4c | 890.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 473 | 33.2%157 W · 316 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked Yes | 4c | 614.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,440 | 27.8%400 W · 1,040 L | +75.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 6c | 388.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 367.45$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 336.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 5c | 320.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1,078 | 36.5%393 W · 685 L | +25.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 201.95$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 2,505 | 69.7%1,746 W · 759 L | +77.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes | 8c | 150.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 20c | 136.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 199 | 27.1%54 W · 145 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 129.65$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 118.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 20c | 116.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53fd…7e7ebacked Yes | 11c | 99.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 19c | 98.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 74c | 98.68$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 16c | 98.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 25c | 90.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ff…f3a0backed Yes | 18c | 80.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 25c | 73.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff1…c957backed Yes | 25c | 73.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 70.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 16c | 66.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c3…5928backed Yes | 19c | 59.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 55.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 54.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 490 | 24.9%122 W · 368 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 22c | 49.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 22c | 49.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 22c | 48.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 28c | 46.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 27c | 39.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 500 | 50.4%252 W · 248 L | +21.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 76c | 38.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 75c | 31.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 76c | 19.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 77c | 19.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 79c | 18.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 74c | 16.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.