Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8f115451f2286a7184c07d4c25abe402de2ff9e2671e1d0132ddffa18ae737f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 59c | 1,330$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.74 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 61c | 653.91$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.75 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 8c | 397.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.36 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 10c | 370.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 70c | 296.56$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.79 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 283.81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked No | 16c | 244.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 48c | 230.09$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.27 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 27c | 208.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.15 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 197.92$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.86 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed Yes | 64c | 195.71$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.39 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 22c | 175.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.38 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 47c | 174.36$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.42 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 67c | 166.25$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 26c | 161.28$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.84 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 158.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 12c | 140.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…01b6backed Yes | 13c | 136.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.25 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 16c | 123.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.23 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 20c | 122.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 69c | 111.43$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 110.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 14c | 101.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.45 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 98.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ff…f3a0backed Yes | 24c | 98.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.87 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 72c | 97.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 32c | 95.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.66 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 36c | 95.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.41 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…7b0dbacked Yes | 51c | 94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 19c | 92.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.55 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…889abacked Yes | 76c | 83.9$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b1…9861backed Yes | 46c | 82.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked Yes | 28c | 80.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 21c | 80$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81c…164abacked Yes | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…465cbacked Yes | 16c | 77.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.43 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…6a25backed No | 76c | 77.79$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 75.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 69c | 73.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 43c | 71.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 70.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 59c | 69.89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 75c | 64.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b93…cdecbacked Yes | 24c | 61.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 30c | 59.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked No | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 66c | 55.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 54.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 30c | 50.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 75c | 47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 29c | 46.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 38c | 45.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…91f8backed No | 72c | 40.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…74efbacked Yes | 48c | 39.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 67c | 34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1014…b701backed Yes | 48c | 32.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 79c | 32.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 65c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 69c | 27.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 78c | 24.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 77c | 19.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 72c | 17.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d6…2ca0backed No | 72c | 14.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 79c | 13.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.