Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs. Team Nemesis
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6986a7fcdbdce1b13b036a9e997e7bf2576fc289f3241e2a085f1ee25306b53d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f76…3e05backed Team Nemesis | 23c | 1,409$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.69 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Team Falcons | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.7 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Nemesis | 10c | 1,008$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.46 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Team Falcons | 29c | 898.7$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Team Nemesis | 24c | 801.05$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.33 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked Team Falcons | 70c | 589.06$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.95 | 119 | 60.5%72 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14a2…e231backed Team Falcons | 72c | 468$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.84 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Team Falcons | 30c | 450$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…2e59backed Team Nemesis | 76c | 332.94$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1b…5adbbacked Team Nemesis | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Team Nemesis | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Team Nemesis | 9c | 231.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Team Nemesis | 11c | 221.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Team Falcons | 64c | 210$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 162 | 32.7%53 W · 109 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2b…adcfbacked Team Nemesis | 17c | 180$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x538e…c195backed Team Falcons | 75c | 111.02$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 129 | 66.7%86 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Team Falcons | 70c | 85.72$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…5787backed Team Nemesis | 13c | 80.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f30…65eabacked Team Nemesis | 31c | 41.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Team Nemesis | 31c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bd…68bebacked Team Falcons | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.