Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C or below on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6999d78ecef39767f654b100411d96925abb8f75a923f3439768548a31e19847
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 11c | 736.11$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.64 | 2,213 | 23.7%525 W · 1,688 L | +86.2wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…42a6backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 21c | 483.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 1,440 | 27.8%400 W · 1,040 L | +75.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 445.3$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 33c | 354.29$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.99 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…af44backed Yes | 17c | 329.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 10c | 312.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 1,857 | 25.4%472 W · 1,385 L | +133.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed Yes | 9c | 311.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…f00abacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed Yes | 36c | 269.45$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.53 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 13c | 201.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 74c | 194.82$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 274 | 78.8%216 W · 58 L | +51.8wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 18c | 191.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 10c | 160.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 157.74$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…7765backed No | 80c | 157.52$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 618 | 23.8%147 W · 471 L | -20.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 141.36$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 164 | 20.1%33 W · 131 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 11c | 131.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 466 | 47.4%221 W · 245 L | +46.7wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…c500backed Yes | 23c | 127.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 121.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 78c | 98.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6209…e82fbacked Yes | 13c | 91.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 22c | 85.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 84.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…98e9backed Yes | 17c | 80.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed No | 80c | 68.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 62c | 55.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 77c | 50.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b2…5784backed Yes | 25c | 47.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 79c | 38.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 57c | 33.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 76c | 30.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…f7edbacked No | 72c | 24.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 75c | 13.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C or below on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.