Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69b352c117f4aab87cd96a2a6db7a6d82eb5a87b63ce7ac46e13392fdbf63e75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed No | 1c | 1,557$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 4c | 1,279$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 25c | 917.42$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.37 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…1e24backed No | 59c | 542.3$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.67 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 61c | 434.55$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.12 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 75c | 415.55$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.83 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 20c | 387.08$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.75 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 66c | 342.34$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.69 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 67c | 334.99$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 230.1$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 39c | 217.53$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.01 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 19c | 177.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…4399backed Yes | 74c | 142.33$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 63c | 115.78$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 115.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…889abacked Yes | 77c | 111.08$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 22c | 92.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 83.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 40c | 82.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed Yes | 41c | 76.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7630…789dbacked Yes | 38c | 74.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.27per pick | 37cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 47c | 70.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 42c | 70.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 16c | 68.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed Yes | 44c | 64.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 46c | 63.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 38c | 63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked Yes | 39c | 62.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 37c | 58.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 35c | 56.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 22c | 52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 51c | 51.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…3255backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 22c | 46.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 40c | 46.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 42.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…0f59backed Yes | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 56c | 35.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked No | 61c | 33.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…5548backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 42c | 28.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 50c | 26.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aba…546dbacked Yes | 73c | 24.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 63c | 22.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…610cbacked No | 62c | 20.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa448…f55dbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -27%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked No | 58c | 19.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 60c | 19.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed No | 64c | 17.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…9907backed No | 64c | 17.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…bfd5backed No | 69c | 16.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…8eeabacked Yes | 75c | 16.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…041fbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 74c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 70c | 14.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.