MLB · resolved market
Nationals vs. Yankees: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a1dfbf57bc519b55c9b818428e77a47d57f100fb2b6005a97e4213c78578908
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Over | 57c | 1,189$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.09 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Under | 39c | 566.21$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.87 | 543 | 45.5%247 W · 296 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Under | 43c | 205.41$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.33 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Over | 55c | 169.36$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.21 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2210…2656backed Under | 45c | 101.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 40c | 96.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 301 | 51.5%155 W · 146 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd91…661cbacked Under | 46c | 88.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc968…f422backed Under | 45c | 87.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e0…292fbacked Under | 45c | 87.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…dadfbacked Under | 45c | 85.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…864dbacked Under | 45c | 80.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae62…d2a1backed Over | 61c | 80.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d23…6a17backed Over | 61c | 77.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1c…18e9backed Over | 61c | 77.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…d6b1backed Over | 61c | 77.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae7…19f3backed Over | 61c | 68.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac8…989dbacked Over | 61c | 64.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…289bbacked Under | 45c | 63.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x235d…315dbacked Under | 45c | 61.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c94…1e9dbacked Over | 61c | 60.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9df…19b6backed Over | 61c | 53.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0227…750bbacked Over | 60c | 49.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…65d6backed Over | 61c | 42.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nationals vs. Yankees: O/U 7.5this page
- Nationals vs. YankeesYankees won
- Spread: Yankees (-1.5)Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.