Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a3f95ecb680ce18579e0c6eb879a798528dbd8b9971881735883b891a929eaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 8c | 254.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4674…03cabacked Yes | 67c | 238.24$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.56 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 32c | 233.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.76 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3436…4ff0backed Yes | 67c | 206.5$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 22c | 196.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 76c | 185.02$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 74c | 176.72$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 171.17$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 156.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…1dd9backed No | 80c | 125.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 10c | 122.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 24c | 117.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.96 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 91.08$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 28c | 81.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 79.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 32c | 77.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 40c | 75.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 25c | 60.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…727fbacked No | 78c | 59.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 58cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 57.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 56.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 60c | 53.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 27c | 40.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 39c | 37.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 35.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 78c | 32.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…92f7backed No | 76c | 29.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 76c | 29.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 69c | 24.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 67c | 21.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9d…7971backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +45%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaae3…f897backed No | 72c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 51c | 19.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 57c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 11°C or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C or higher on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.