Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a4e2271eac7ba8e44a533fab030a5e23e5c5589643ebd391c6871a37034aac2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 11c | 667.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 7c | 545.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 347.2$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.18 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 226.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 27c | 190.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 186.31$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 163.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 36c | 155.46$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 150.31$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 133$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 77c | 129.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed No | 71c | 124.12$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 34c | 118.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe16a…dd6dbacked No | 65c | 116.3$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 30c | 110.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 48c | 105.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked Yes | 26c | 98.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 97.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 95.08$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 72c | 82.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 45c | 74.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 26c | 70.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 31c | 65.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 48c | 61.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 27c | 60.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 36c | 60.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 78c | 59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 27c | 58.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 27c | 46.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 68c | 45.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 36c | 41.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe06d…ac24backed Yes | 39c | 41.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.3wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 75c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 37c | 37.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 63c | 34.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 31c | 34.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 41c | 34.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 59c | 33.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 66c | 23.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 52c | 20.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 64c | 19.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 19.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 76c | 18.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 78c | 17.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.