Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ba8222492e7575034f84e76085d71990c1dc7bc8bbc7bdb58666eb50c2b807a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5757…9e19backed Yes | 72c | 572.13$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.79 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40ea…6523backed Yes | 58c | 411.68$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.42 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 64c | 377.6$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 15c | 364.43$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 38c | 340.36$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 15c | 329.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…02d9backed Yes | 58c | 318.96$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.93 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 56c | 258.36$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 204.16$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 15c | 190.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 69c | 187.16$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 33c | 186.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 51c | 168.7$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.21 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 57c | 163.29$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…de25backed No | 22c | 160.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 34c | 150.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 54c | 144.74$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.57 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 25c | 142.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 47c | 139.77$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 20c | 124.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…befdbacked Yes | 71c | 121.07$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed No | 49c | 114.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 17c | 105.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 69c | 101.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 66c | 92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 22c | 76.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed Yes | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 55c | 73.87$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 25c | 73.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd1…d33cbacked No | 45c | 72.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…f19ebacked No | 16c | 70.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes | 50c | 70.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 33c | 67.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 65c | 64.11$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 46c | 61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 50c | 56.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 70c | 51.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…4e6ebacked No | 30c | 50.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 34c | 49.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 52c | 49.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd782…a950backed No | 30c | 49.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 59c | 48.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 53c | 46.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe06d…ac24backed No | 52c | 46.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.3wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 27c | 45.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb8…7c99backed Yes | 75c | 44.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 41c | 43.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 29c | 42.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 57c | 42.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29da…f41ebacked Yes | 78c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -76%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f0…fa62backed No | 45c | 37.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +366.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…e718backed Yes | 65c | 36.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 52c | 34.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 74c | 30.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 61c | 27.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 44c | 23.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…42fcbacked No | 57c | 23.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 63 | 84.1%53 W · 10 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 46c | 22.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde94…6d0fbacked Yes | 69c | 21.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 65c | 20.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 51c | 20.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe116…96c2backed Yes | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x360f…e6e1backed Yes | 57c | 18.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked Yes | 69c | 16.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.