Token Launches · resolved market
Hyperliquid Up or Down on February 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a6e96864bdec0e179b08f42964e903715262f969e890340e8163c5f256b21f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked Down | 1c | 6,560$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55df…6d05backed Up | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa68b…9aa9backed Up | 66c | 3,000$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…ce12backed Up | 66c | 3,000$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fa…cc76backed Down | 43c | 3,000$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e41…8265backed Up | 77c | 3,000$2,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x465b…be9bbacked Down | 44c | 1,800$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc526…b075backed Down | 44c | 1,700$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…6928backed Down | 44c | 1,500$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2b…4ee9backed Down | 34c | 1,250$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca7…9cc7backed Down | 34c | 1,250$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8829…3682backed Down | 23c | 1,150$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e57…da31backed Up | 57c | 1,100$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…cc90backed Down | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e0…4275backed Down | 34c | 950$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…7af2backed Up | 57c | 950$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf23…ca8ebacked Up | 57c | 950$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9afa…0d11backed Down | 34c | 900$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…cfccbacked Down | 23c | 850$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95b…0bf9backed Down | 34c | 850$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6484…9aebbacked Down | 34c | 800$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x179d…e18bbacked Down | 11c | 139.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 35cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x054a…f218backed Down | 12c | 128.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.