Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Zeynep Sonmez vs Anastasia Gasanova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a80f21eb01b2d753277c004639bb407d7841d60cf268b91c0792d174243f7eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sonmezof Sonmez, Gasanova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x601a…3506backed Gasanova | 26c | 9,278$2,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,385.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sonmez | 75c | 4,798$3,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213.03 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sonmez | 77c | 3,781$2,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.09 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…a759backed Sonmez | 74c | 3,500$2,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910 | 339 | 55.2%187 W · 152 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Gasanova | 24c | 2,308$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.42 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6a…86bbbacked Sonmez | 74c | 1,599$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.88 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Gasanova | 26c | 1,400$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.38 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Gasanova | 21c | 1,250$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.41 | 305 | 30.8%94 W · 211 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Sonmez | 70c | 1,013$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.6 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…18f4backed Sonmez | 73c | 300$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.92 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Gasanova | 25c | 273.9$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6f…f8ebbacked Sonmez | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Sonmez | 75c | 179.5$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…d542backed Gasanova | 15c | 166.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Gasanova | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…6678backed Sonmez | 74c | 135.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed Sonmez | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Gasanova | 26c | 79.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Sonmez | 76c | 59.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Gasanova | 26c | 53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Sonmez | 75c | 42.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ee…6899backed Sonmez | 74c | 42.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a67…0355backed Sonmez | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…4dccbacked Sonmez | 75c | 39.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Gasanova | 27c | 38.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Sonmez | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f17…9ab3backed Sonmez | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 86 | 66.3%57 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de6…fdb3backed Sonmez | 75c | 26.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f5…1770backed Sonmez | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe615…506fbacked Sonmez | 75c | 19.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.