Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on February 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ad3515def0246aab605d521fc4f4e0f939412b9a61355d6e87605880434272f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 5c | 1,140$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 634 | 24.1%153 W · 481 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…a2fdbacked No | 4c | 492.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 5c | 408.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.07 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed No | 4c | 348.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00d…6ffdbacked Yes | 11c | 269.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.62 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…238cbacked Yes | 4c | 257.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.41 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0866…fe5fbacked No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 28c | 196.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 163.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1196…fe97backed Yes | 44c | 146.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.89 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 40c | 135.21$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.26 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc5…af1cbacked Yes | 10c | 106.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.51 | 76 | 9.2%7 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes | 46c | 95.21$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 66c | 82.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 78c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 24c | 71.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 40c | 52.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…144dbacked No | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -21.4wins | -0.33per pick | 59cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 24-0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xa11d…260fbacked No | 75c | 14.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on February 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or higher on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C or below on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.