Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6af7b55bacacdb1a2ca2ae9875803b0ebff5b7c4a6641489faaca6c7e28f560d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 78c | 300.45$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 78c | 261.18$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Yes | 22c | 255$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 15c | 177.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 113 | 56.6%64 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes | 16c | 103.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1871…59e6backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 74c | 89.57$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 73c | 89.16$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe516…14ffbacked Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x361f…5edabacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 79c | 68.54$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Yes | 31c | 61.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 61c | 56.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 21c | 50.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 62c | 43.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8367…7eaebacked Yes | 54c | 36.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…eac6backed No | 69c | 36.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed No | 78c | 31.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +28%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 72c | 21.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-05-17?Yes won
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-05-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.