Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-05-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ddb7eb27ac0b493641550ea087c8eef5f19d7534a9b829f861a0a8406104b85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x912a…2e6abacked Yes | 59c | 20,184$11,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,940.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 41c | 12,419$5,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,358.42 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 41c | 2,858$1,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,695.89 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 41c | 2,298$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,345.41 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7d55backed Yes | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 67c | 1,277$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.09 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 15c | 1,031$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.91 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 42c | 726.76$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.52 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 75c | 719.13$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.58 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 42c | 448.99$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.12 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 58c | 420.69$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 38c | 405$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.55 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 39c | 381.36$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.43 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…3fa2backed Yes | 50c | 374$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 42c | 304$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.39 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 42c | 304$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.39 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Yes | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 41c | 286.51$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.04 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 42c | 246.43$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed No | 40c | 245$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Yes | 58c | 238$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.04 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…1d6dbacked Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +199.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked No | 58c | 171.52$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.09 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 41c | 168.04$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.14 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce6…8e94backed No | 41c | 151.59$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked No | 58c | 133.48$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked No | 38c | 131.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.59 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 58c | 119.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 41c | 100.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1871…59e6backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 41c | 97.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 57c | 95.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 61c | 67.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4aa…f4e5backed No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 42c | 38.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f6…0981backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41c3…4d56backed Yes | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1818…2c75backed No | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 80c | 19.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-05-17?this page
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-05-17?Yes won
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.