Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-05-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1aeb811759506a05800446a9a603e8c51edc140a1534c39faf3df695bd407c70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 38c | 39,999$15,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,049.57 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 61c | 25,109$15,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,902.89 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yes | 60c | 7,874$4,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,184.21 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 58c | 3,008$1,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.9 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 42c | 2,894$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215.52 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 56c | 2,893$1,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,282.23 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4538…7d5cbacked Yes | 61c | 1,348$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +45%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc056…e188backed Yes | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 17c | 759.63$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.99 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…5292backed Yes | 67c | 597.01$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.01 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5392…d2ecbacked Yes | 19c | 557.5$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9da0…523cbacked Yes | 80c | 549.92$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7d55backed No | 45c | 502.24$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.01 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 35c | 499.39$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.28 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…76b5backed Yes | 67c | 448.29$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 18c | 353.73$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.06 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…fb89backed Yes | 59c | 269.98$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a47…cfbbbacked No | 38c | 223.68$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Yes | 67c | 193.18$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.73 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Yes | 75c | 153$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ec…a9c4backed Yes | 42c | 150$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.71 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 47cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 31c | 140.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed35…84fbbacked Yes | 60c | 131.91$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 37c | 115.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 43c | 112.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8f…da09backed Yes | 66c | 107.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 37c | 103.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 26c | 99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 19c | 75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 17cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Yes | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…9904backed Yes | 59c | 70.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked No | 44c | 69.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Yes | 57c | 64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 34c | 63.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Yes | 67c | 60.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 32c | 54.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 67c | 54.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed No | 47c | 52.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e7…c87fbacked Yes | 63c | 49.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked Yes | 59c | 34.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 41c | 33.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…8052backed Yes | 68c | 30.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 66c | 24.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…02ffbacked Yes | 55c | 23.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 54cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Yes | 76c | 18.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 68c | 18.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Yes | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-05-17?this page
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern end in a draw?No won
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-05-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.