Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Reilly Opelka vs Benjamin Bonzi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6afac76c8815eb85bedefa36c0209f77326e7781a70c0efd9b07f36a5a531da6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bonziof Opelka, Bonzi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bonzi | 55c | 4,706$2,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,094.89 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Opelka | 51c | 1,256$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.37 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -9.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…ddd7backed Opelka | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Opelka | 53c | 577.82$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.73 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcd…1722backed Opelka | 50c | 490$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.7 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…7630backed Opelka | 53c | 472$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.16 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Opelka | 55c | 358.49$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.17 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…1eb0backed Opelka | 52c | 288.44$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -11.1wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Opelka | 38c | 190$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.7 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Opelka | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Opelka | 28c | 181.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…f165backed Opelka | 41c | 180.29$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.84 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Bonzi | 53c | 149.62$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.81 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bonzi | 61c | 144.66$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Opelka | 53c | 142.55$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Opelka | 42c | 141.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Opelka | 9c | 122$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Opelka | 20c | 121.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Bonzi | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Opelka | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Bonzi | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bonzi | 44c | 86.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Bonzi | 74c | 67.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Bonzi | 47c | 57.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Bonzi | 45c | 57.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 253 | 42.7%108 W · 145 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Bonzi | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Opelka | 55c | 45.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Bonzi | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8004…8125backed Bonzi | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed Bonzi | 46c | 40.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7be0backed Bonzi | 48c | 29.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.