Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 120 or more times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b0accd62f239f042aae72684b99257c41d49a0fd7dbfc691268160674297470
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 1c | 4,875$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…ef88backed No | 61c | 1,804$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.25 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed No | 24c | 1,616$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.85 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 7c | 1,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 17c | 895.85$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.39 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…e226backed Yes | 43c | 753.94$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 67c | 534.62$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.39 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e0…98cebacked Yes | 12c | 452.13$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +163.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…f234backed Yes | 12c | 451$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…c427backed Yes | 10c | 359.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +181.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac57…1169backed Yes | 51c | 346.49$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 47c | 251.31$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.13 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815b…5ef7backed Yes | 10c | 193.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +140.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 50c | 191.16$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.04 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef4c…827cbacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x530d…c827backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e0…f11ebacked Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa162…0b55backed Yes | 69c | 87.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4e…1876backed Yes | 35c | 57.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73cf…f716backed Yes | 56c | 35.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c91…1971backed Yes | 50c | 25.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 120 or more times?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100-109 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 110-119 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 60-69 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 70-79 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 80-89 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90-99 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 60 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.