Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: San Diego State Aztecs (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b6a618a2faf2d48c05f9871e7b5fae661398320553062b5b1bc9714a1a2ee77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego State Aztecsof San Diego State Aztecs, Nevada Wolf Pack
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 51c | 4,664$2,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,378.48 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed San Diego State Aztecs | 48c | 2,136$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.77 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed San Diego State Aztecs | 49c | 1,665$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.21 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…0127backed San Diego State Aztecs | 49c | 1,616$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.16 | 137 | 46.7%64 W · 73 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 52c | 709.89$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.96 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego State Aztecs | 51c | 295.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.63 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 47c | 160.83$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.19 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed San Diego State Aztecs | 46c | 150.88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.48 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed San Diego State Aztecs | 49c | 124.29$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.39 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 52c | 106$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked San Diego State Aztecs | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 41c | 95.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 50c | 49.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked San Diego State Aztecs | 43c | 33.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 356 | 46.6%166 W · 190 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed San Diego State Aztecs | 49c | 30.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 52c | 30.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed San Diego State Aztecs | 47c | 28.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed San Diego State Aztecs | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego State Aztecs (-8.5)this page
- Nevada Wolf Pack vs. San Diego State AztecsSan Diego State Aztecs won
- Nevada Wolf Pack vs. San Diego State Aztecs: O/U 139.5Under won
- Nevada Wolf Pack vs. San Diego State Aztecs: O/U 140.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.