Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. San Diego State Aztecs: O/U 140.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d458dced374fe91d427995a23e1c10f6099c2156c5d43c452e47318708e943d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $172,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $172,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c2b…2575backed Under | 53c | 110,000$58,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,699.95 | 609 | 49.8%303 W · 306 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…f293backed Over | 47c | 65,000$30,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,550 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x163e…dc5bbacked Over | 48c | 40,000$19,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,199.98 | 127 | 54.3%69 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7e…0f7abacked Over | 47c | 35,941$16,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,892.32 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 52c | 31,683$16,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,207.75 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…fa93backed Under | 54c | 9,037$4,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,122.38 | 185 | 48.6%90 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 48c | 8,827$4,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,265 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 52c | 7,280$3,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,494.4 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb66…2f53backed Over | 47c | 7,234$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Under | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 45c | 2,757$1,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240.52 | 351 | 47.6%167 W · 184 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 46c | 2,025$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.49 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 1,617$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.76 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed Under | 54c | 1,100$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 47c | 975.12$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.31 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 51c | 915$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.38 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a9…e73abacked Over | 47c | 799.94$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.97 | 267 | 49.1%131 W · 136 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 48c | 705.19$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.49 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Under | 53c | 560$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.2 | 564 | 44.1%249 W · 315 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 47c | 260$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.2 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked Over | 46c | 195$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 47c | 130$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 204 | 52.9%108 W · 96 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 283 | 54.1%153 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c4…0c01backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 81.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f1…b99dbacked Under | 55c | 78.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 53c | 63.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x565a…7fb5backed Over | 47c | 40.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d94…e7f7backed Under | 54c | 35.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1182…3751backed Over | 47c | 29.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 47c | 22.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Over | 47c | 22.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…4c1bbacked Under | 54c | 21.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +13.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba2…8f7cbacked Over | 47c | 21.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d3…09f9backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nevada Wolf Pack vs. San Diego State Aztecs: O/U 140.5this page
- Nevada Wolf Pack vs. San Diego State AztecsSan Diego State Aztecs won
- Nevada Wolf Pack vs. San Diego State Aztecs: O/U 139.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego State Aztecs (-8.5)San Diego State Aztecs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.