College Football · resolved market
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Houston
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b6a6973620a2a247534a148fc77b0b7c79f361536ce7442934906ac2b5b9c48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Tech Red Raidersof Texas Tech Red Raiders, Houston
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked Houston | 15c | 33,315$4,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,871.63 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Houston | 17c | 25,381$4,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,314.71 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Houston | 17c | 11,586$1,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,969.7 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Houston | 12c | 3,119$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.82 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Houston | 17c | 2,153$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.01 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Houston | 18c | 1,732$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.21 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Houston | 17c | 1,464$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.93 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Houston | 17c | 1,258$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.92 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Houston | 18c | 1,200$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Houston | 18c | 805.56$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Houston | 18c | 600$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f82…d6abbacked Houston | 7c | 400.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Houston | 12c | 350$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781e…2484backed Houston | 8c | 319.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Houston | 18c | 300$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Houston | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Houston | 17c | 146.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Houston | 17c | 123.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Houston | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Houston | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…4eedbacked Houston | 18c | 58.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd4…dfaebacked Texas Tech Red Raiders | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Houstonthis page
- Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-11.5)Texas Tech Red Raiders won
- Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-12.5)Texas Tech Red Raiders won
- Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-13.5)Texas Tech Red Raiders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.