NHL · resolved market
KHL: HC Dynamo Moscow vs. Severstal Cherepovets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b6c87439b0bd0b6c2a569b3e315d4e83efcf14215264e2d174534c699cc45ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HC Dynamo Moscowof HC Dynamo Moscow, Severstal Cherepovets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c4d…c709backed Severstal Cherepovets | 44c | 1,360$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6370…e1a1backed HC Dynamo Moscow | 56c | 481$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd096…8c6fbacked HC Dynamo Moscow | 56c | 444$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c7…18bdbacked HC Dynamo Moscow | 56c | 435$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Severstal Cherepovets | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa558…1b44backed HC Dynamo Moscow | 43c | 183$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.31 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked HC Dynamo Moscow | 54c | 106.04$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Severstal Cherepovets | 21c | 72.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 46c | 63.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc5…7b98backed Severstal Cherepovets | 40c | 27.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…47afbacked HC Dynamo Moscow | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.