MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b9f208400b3c0995092f4bfda01f89cdec78d273884cc967afae68e291fd271
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Minnesota Twins, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,086 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Minnesota Twins | 0c | 3,707$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 1,404$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.06 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 1,222$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 999.99$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Minnesota Twins | 41c | 999.61$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.84 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab7…3af7backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 747.5$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 664.03$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.88 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x626a…90cbbacked Minnesota Twins | 39c | 550$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…1294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 530$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea9…14eabacked Minnesota Twins | 39c | 510$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcea…f477backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 380$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 371.57$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.89 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Minnesota Twins | 40c | 365.97$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.39 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd5…ce38backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Minnesota Twins | 40c | 299.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Minnesota Twins | 8c | 240.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b52…51e7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 220$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…97f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 210$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Minnesota Twins | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 182.32$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…4102backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 170$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Minnesota Twins | 13c | 166.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 230 | 36.1%83 W · 147 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 140.8$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e8…ed04backed Minnesota Twins | 40c | 121.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…2a64backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 120.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Minnesota Twins | 33c | 97.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Minnesota Twins | 22c | 87.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…f6afbacked Minnesota Twins | 33c | 67.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 310 | 32.9%102 W · 208 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Toronto Blue Jays | 80c | 54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 50.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Minnesota Twins | 41c | 48.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Toronto Blue Jays | 76c | 44.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7d…4132backed Minnesota Twins | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…dd4fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5057…ff74backed Minnesota Twins | 40c | 34.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de5…e9c6backed Minnesota Twins | 40c | 33.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7923…1c18backed Minnesota Twins | 44c | 30.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9d…c586backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 24.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…05e6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 24.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89af…6364backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 21.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f5…8aafbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 17.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.