Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ba8c6b63847cde12c56879e6db8f41e0314cf3ff8ff12e191c39ea88645ee47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Inner Circleof Inner Circle, VP.Prodigy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked VP.Prodigy | 30c | 1,350$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.29 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…d84fbacked VP.Prodigy | 34c | 691.45$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.48 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Inner Circle | 67c | 622$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.15 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked VP.Prodigy | 33c | 526.5$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.37 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Inner Circle | 64c | 466.34$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.34 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed Inner Circle | 65c | 342.01$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.13 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Inner Circle | 59c | 336.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.49 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Inner Circle | 65c | 333.61$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.76 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed Inner Circle | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked VP.Prodigy | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Inner Circle | 78c | 128.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce6…030ebacked VP.Prodigy | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed VP.Prodigy | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed VP.Prodigy | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed VP.Prodigy | 23c | 91.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…3d8cbacked Inner Circle | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bd…4dacbacked VP.Prodigy | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d0…ee5abacked VP.Prodigy | 28c | 47.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked VP.Prodigy | 23c | 47.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Inner Circle | 71c | 20.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Inner Circle | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3f…38e4backed Inner Circle | 65c | 18.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Inner Circle | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group AInner Circle won
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.