CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Bebop (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bae15a433ed6fde28a8c69ac3274a8dbdaf352e0608f08458809072f5fc34ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof Ursa, Bebop
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf22c…5c89backed Ursa | 57c | 838.77$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Bebop | 54c | 752$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.02 | 1,033 | 61.6%636 W · 397 L | +87.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bebop | 58c | 367$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.86 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Ursa | 39c | 339.66$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.45 | 362 | 45.3%164 W · 198 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd711…bbccbacked Bebop | 63c | 160.32$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…0acbbacked Bebop | 62c | 160$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Bebop | 59c | 126$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Bebop | 56c | 99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…1bcfbacked Bebop | 60c | 87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Bebop | 59c | 68.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Bebop | 60c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Bebop | 56c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 339 | 49%166 W · 173 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Ursa | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…e845backed Ursa | 41c | 47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Ursa | 45c | 44.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 623 | 50.9%317 W · 306 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de0…ea80backed Bebop | 58c | 39.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 196 | 55.1%108 W · 88 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe8…3549backed Ursa | 42c | 37.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 139 | 54.7%76 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…8deabacked Ursa | 44c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Bebop | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed Ursa | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Ursa | 43c | 29.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 148 | 39.2%58 W · 90 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x063c…d642backed Ursa | 44c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 54cpaid | +93%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed Ursa | 44c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed Bebop | 56c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Bebop (BO3)this page
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Bebop - Map 1 WinnerUrsa won
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Bebop - Map 2 WinnerBebop won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.