Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will NK Celje vs. AEK end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bc5f1b6eeb56ab63fbd3fb0f595168263469dd54fabf088a4ff8dc5feacfa24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,457 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 24c | 6,856$1,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,645.36 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 76c | 3,264$2,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.36 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 76c | 1,690$1,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.74 | 251 | 57%143 W · 108 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 899.41$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.49 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x434d…fba4backed No | 76c | 792$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.08 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 15c | 720$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 76c | 682.17$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.6 | 200 | 48%96 W · 104 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f4…e01abacked Yes | 25c | 409.2$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 26c | 257.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.95 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 76c | 252$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 74c | 250$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…b42dbacked Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…e72bbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecad…875cbacked Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 76c | 174.3$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47a…4e85backed Yes | 24c | 104$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 56 | 76.8%43 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 24c | 60.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 26c | 47.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 76c | 27.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 72c | 24.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…bfc1backed No | 77c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c87…7f4abacked No | 76c | 18.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 61cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 74c | 15.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NK Celje vs. AEK end in a draw?this page
- Will AEK win on 2026-03-12?Yes won
- Will NK Celje win on 2026-03-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.