Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will NK Celje win on 2026-03-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75418bb45813e17eebf3787e2f9582712785b96dd53e2fa92d084b09af1ccbf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,810 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83fc…7141backed Yes | 18c | 12,931$2,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,327.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170f…095bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,318$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 21c | 6,014$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 79c | 3,083$2,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.82 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 80c | 2,238$1,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.96 | 251 | 57%143 W · 108 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 79c | 1,087$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.76 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x434d…fba4backed No | 79c | 701.42$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.3 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 79c | 674.18$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.23 | 200 | 48%96 W · 104 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 21c | 610.24$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.15 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 21c | 555$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.55 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 17c | 507.75$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.09 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Yes | 10c | 445.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f4…e01abacked Yes | 22c | 400$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 79c | 316$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 78c | 220.19$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed Yes | 12c | 213.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked Yes | 26c | 209.77$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 22c | 166.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 72c | 157.14$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…82f2backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa458…2306backed Yes | 15c | 145.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…e72bbacked Yes | 22c | 140$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 21c | 120.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…6beabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 23c | 88.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…78d9backed Yes | 19c | 73.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes | 21c | 61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 25c | 53.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed No | 79c | 48.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 79c | 31.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 102 | 54.9%56 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 79c | 16.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NK Celje win on 2026-03-12?this page
- Will AEK win on 2026-03-12?Yes won
- Will NK Celje vs. AEK end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.