South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bc7b5447c4ddae5e4529561a75098385f2f1cd0e6359898b81fb2810fc34cd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 5c | 6,726$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.79 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95a9…4352backed No | 71c | 2,367$1,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.52 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.24per pick | 70cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 29c | 2,214$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.02 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 2c | 1,067$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 79c | 794.93$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.95 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 30c | 325.72$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 11c | 223.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…c5d0backed No | 70c | 210.43$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 46 | 76.1%35 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x806b…cccabacked No | 68c | 103.13$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 32c | 98.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 30c | 95.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22ce…c001backed Yes | 30c | 78.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Yes | 28c | 75.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc311…c154backed No | 71c | 69.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 29c | 62.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 70c | 59.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0720…89a7backed Yes | 30c | 51.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…88bdbacked Yes | 30c | 51.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 70c | 50.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf87…cc46backed Yes | 24c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed No | 76c | 48.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b80…8b39backed Yes | 31c | 46.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 29c | 37.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 70c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x637a…9fbabacked Yes | 30c | 36.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…8b48backed No | 71c | 27.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…2eaabacked No | 70c | 23.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 70c | 14.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw?this page
- Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-04-02?No won
- Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-04-02?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.